Interacting Climate Drivers Are Reshaping Alaska’s Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta

The Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska is one of the world’s most important wetlands for migratory birds and home to the largest Indigenous population in the U.S. Arctic. New research shows that sea-level rise, sea-ice loss, stronger storms, erosion, and permafrost thaw are working together in unexpected ways—driving rapid, landscape-scale transformations across the delta.

• Key finding: About 70% of the outer delta’s ecosystems are projected to shift by 2100, as freshwater and slightly brackish habitats transition toward saline and brackish systems due to flooding, salinization, and permafrost collapse.
  
• Why it matters: These changes will create both winners and losers among birds. Species like black brant and emperor geese that rely on tidal flats and brackish wetlands may persist, while others depending on freshwater ecotypes could decline.
  
• Broader impacts: Already, 10 of 18 Yup’ik villages on the outer delta face severe flooding, erosion, and permafrost thaw, with some actively planning relocation. Adapting to these intertwined challenges will require an unprecedented societal effort.

This study, co-authored by SEARCH contributor Torre Jorgenson, provides the first integrated model of how interacting climate drivers are reshaping Arctic coasts with critical implications for wildlife, Indigenous subsistence, and global migration networks.