Sooner or Later: Understanding the “When” of Sea Ice-Free Arctic Summer

The vast Arctic Ocean at the top of our planet has been covered in sea ice longer than humans have been on Earth. Crucial habitat upon which Arctic ecosystems and people rely, that sea ice cover has historically remained even in the warmest summer months. With rising greenhouse gas emissions from around the world warming  the Arctic, though, summers in the Arctic Ocean will soon be nearly free of sea ice for the first time in millennia. For climate modelers like Marika Holland, determining when that summer will come and how long it might be is crucial. A SEARCH Executive Committee member and Co-Chair of our Drivers & Ecological Consequences of Arctic Environmental Change co-production team, Marika’s “day job” at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) involves using complex climate models to examine the interactions between Arctic sea ice, ecological changes, global emissions, and more. Yet even experts like her rely on the expertise of others. Recently, Marika has teamed up with her colleagues Alexandra Jahn and Jennifer Kay to review the state of knowledge on projections of future sea ice-free conditions in the Arctic. Their findings, which include identifying the potential durations of sea ice-free summers under various emissions scenarios, will help to paint a more detailed picture of the Arctic’s environmental future.